Can India survive another lockdown if UK strain spreads all across the country?

2020, the year in which surviving financially, mentally and socially was a big achievement. And all the people reading it, congratulations for surviving 2020! But is it really 2021 or just 2020 2.0. Because Covid-19 is now decreasing in India and around 20000–26000 cases are reported each day. But the fear of UK strain is spreading all over the world. More than 10 countries have reported strain cases and lockdown is implemented again. India reported a total of 25 cases of strain till now excluding people who gave their wrong address and now hiding anywhere in this country. If cases increase again, the Government would have no choice but to implement another lockdown because of the impact the new strain does including 28 symptoms and spreads 10x faster. It will be detrimental for India if another lockdown is implemented and some points below tells us why.

1. India’s GDP contracted by 24% in Q1 last year. The total value of goods and services produced in 2020 in the month of April, May and June was 24% less than what was produced in the same months in 2019.
2. Unemployment rate increased in 2020. Many companies had to let go their employees and workers. It reached 23.5% overall in the month of April and May. Here’s a graph depicting unemployment rate in India.

3. We all have witnessed the distress lockdown caused to the people. People had to change their occupations, labor families living in urban areas migrated back to rural areas. Work from home people didn’t have much problem because they were receiving their salary every month. The wealthiest had to consider additional resources to support their income. Think about what it did to Middle class and poor people. Many small businesses were shut down. Street vendors were also hit very hard.

4. Tourism industry was probably the worst hit sector in the Indian economy. There has been an estimated loss of Rs10 lakh crores for the industry due to the pandemic. The GOI is undertaking several steps for the revival of this industry.

5. Mental health was deeply affected. We have never witnessed such thing before. The fear was/is beneath us. This fear alone took many lives. Suicide rate also increased in India. People lost their homes, jobs, their livelihood. It wasn’t easy for anyone.

6. Education sector is also one of the worst hit sector in India. Online classes were held for the entire year and are still on. Students belonging to poor class had no facilities to attend online class. They were not able to study despite having high hopes for themselves. Small Schools and colleges got shut down because fees due was not received and no one was/is financially stable to pay the fees. People are still struggling to survive.

Now let’s talk about the impact India will have to suffer if Lockdown is implemented again. In some parts of strain affected areas in India such as Delhi and Maharashtra, night curfew is already implemented.

1. India will suffer more losses than before. Already more than a million people have lost their jobs. Big companies changed their plans and objectives because of pandemic. Another lockdown would mean huge losses to the wealthy population too.
2. Supply and demand will together fall down. Inflation and Deflation will again rule the economy. In other words, impact will be more, consequences will be unbearable. It would be the worst time for Indian economy.
3. New fear of strain is already spreading just like Covid-19 did. But one good thing is that people have now learned to live with it. They don’t care about it no more. But not everyone is like that. Even I have extreme fear of Covid. Pity those people who are not wearing masks and roaming freely like nothing happened. Anxiety and depression cases have increased due to it.
4. It would mean another year with online classes and work from home. Education sector will get hit hard. Literacy level would go down. Online class is not the same as offline. Work from home has stunted the growth of organisations. It is not easy to manage a large company by a computer screen. Management is a dynamic function. Adapting to such a business environment is not a piece of cake.
5. India’s Government net debt is projected to stand around 29 crores by 2025. There was an increase in the debt in March 2020. India has already the recession and is expected to go further down if lockdown is implemented.
6. If there is lockdown, there would be unlock too. That would mean rapid spread of the new strain which is super effective. Vaccination has started in many parts of the world such as USA and Britain. But the sudden spread of the strain means the vaccine is not so effective. But we all still hope the vaccine proves to be effective and free us from this trap.
7. Vaccination is getting started in India. If it proves ineffective to the new strain, we have to face severe consequences. Already more than 100000 deaths are reported in India till now.

After experiencing the effects of 2020 lockdown, we know India is not ready to face another year of negative growth and killing of our economy. The impact would be more worse and people don’t want to spend another 4–5 months at home jobless or in stress. But if anything happens, the GOI should be ready to face it.

We just hope 2021 doesn’t bring any disasters and problems as 2020 did. People should follow all the covid norms to stop the spread. Remember, it’s not over yet. This year is the chance for many countries including India to get back in the game and revive it’s economy from the trap of recession. The Government of India has to take some big steps and changes in policies to make it possible.